Saturday, November 12, 2016

The depressing numbers behind Election 2016

I don't consider myself a numbers person, but I have been fascinated by the numbers behind the 2016 Presidential Election, going back to the primaries. And the numbers behind what is being called the most surprising (and shocking) U.S. presidential election ever are pretty interesting. So I thought I'd share some of them with you.

Here are a bunch from the United States Elections Project:

Here are some other interesting numbers:

Number of Americans registered to vote: 146,311,000 (per Statistics Brain, which has more statistics about the election on its site).

Number of registered voters who actually voted: 133,331,500*

This means nearly 13 million people who could have easily voted did not. And over 85 million who could have voted by registering couldn't be bothered. 

[You want a better world, Millennials? Go register and VOTE IN THE MIDTERMS. No effing excuses.]

Popular vote totals* as of 8:35 a.m. ET on 11/12/16:

Hillary Clinton:  60,467,601**
Donald Trump:   60,072,551
Gary Johnson:      4,123,115
Jill Stein:              1,237,138
Other candidates:    820,695

For those too lazy to do the math, Clinton now leads Trump by nearly 400,00 votes.

[Donald Trump was right. The electoral college is a disaster.]

To see state-by-state popular vote totals, click here.

As I mentioned on Facebook the other day, less than (or just over) 100,000 votes separated Clinton and Trump in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania. But the only way the outcome of the election would change is if those votes for Hillary were cast in Arizona and Michigan and either Florida and/or Pennsylvania.

Interestingly, as of November 9, Arizona, which Trump won by less than 100,000 votes, still had over 600,000 ballots to count. And, according to Heavy:
As of November 11, the Secretary of State in Michigan was reporting the following totals:

Trump: 2,277,914
Clinton: 2,264,807
Johnson: 172,726
Stein: 51,420
Castle: 16,125
Soltysik: 2,231

That’s a margin of victory of just 13,107 votes. A margin of under 2,000 votes triggers an automatic recount in Michigan, but candidates can seek a recount even if the margin is larger.
Speaking of razor thin margins, check out this fascinating article from The Washington Post titled "How Trump won the presidency with razor-thin margins in swing states," which notes that "Of the more than 120 million votes cast in the 2016 election, 107,000 votes in three states effectively decided the election."

Another excellent numerical read is the New York Times's exit poll stats. As Samantha Bee noted, "it's pretty clear who ruined America: white people." Indeed, 63 percent of white men and 53 percent of white women cast their votes for Trump. (To which I say, WTF ladies?)

And that concludes this lesson on why it's important for those of you unhappy with the results of Election 2016 to register to vote (if you have not done so already) and to actually go out and vote on election day -- and why 2018 will be a very important election.

This has been a public service announcement.

11/13/16 UPDATE: As of 6:07 p.m. ET today, Hillary Clinton's lead over Donald Trump increased to more than 650,000 votes. And when I checked earlier today, votes were still being counted in parts of Michigan and Pennsylvania, both close races that were being called for Trump, and California, which broke heavily for Clinton. But according to various reports I've read, even if Clinton has a million or two million more votes than Trump, because of where those votes were cast, Trump is still going to be President.

*These numbers will go up as votes are still being counted.
**According to many/most predictions, Clinton's popular vote lead will exceed 500,000 -- and some say over 1 million votes.

No comments: