Why Jon Ossoff (and the Democrats) will lose

Why do I think Jon Ossoff, the Democrat seeking to represent Georgia's 6th congressional district, will lose to Republican Karen Handel in today's special election, even though he's raised far more money and seems far more popular? Because Republicans vote and Democrats don't.

Obviously, Democrats vote, but their turnout is typically far lower than Republicans', especially in off-year elections. And the 6th has been a reliably Republican district since the late 1970s, when Newt Gingrich won -- and held onto the seat for 20 years (to be replaced by two more middle-aged white males).

And despite what they may say or write about a Republican candidate, when it comes down to a vote, Republicans almost always vote for the person with an R after his (or occasionally her) name. So it's doubtful that Ossoff will have managed to sway 15 or 10 percent of Republican voters to vote for him, even if they don't like Trump or Trumpcare/The American Health Care Act.

Moreover, Republican campaign strategists are very good at staying on message and getting Republicans to the polls. Their strategy: fear. Vote for the Democrat and you'll be paying higher taxes! (They'll grab your hard-earned money and give it to lazy minorities and illegal immigrants!) Vote for the Democrat and you'll be less safe (cause they'll take away your guns and will let criminals roam the streets)!

And despite plenty of proof to the contrary, the strategy always works. Just tell the people what they want to hear, even -- or especially -- if it's a bunch of lies. Because who's going to fact check? Most voters don't read anymore, let alone check the accuracy of what they're reading, especially on social media, or what they see on TV. And when faced with any facts that contradict their beliefs, they cling even harder to their beliefs. So it's really a no-lose situation for Republicans.

So what can Democrats do? I think part of the solution has to be going back to grass roots, old-fashioned campaigning, like what Ossoff's been doing -- and what Obama did in the 2008 presidential race. Going to lots of events that "real people," not just wealthy donors, attend. Going door to door, and/or to supermarkets, and the local car wash; attending sporting events at local high schools and colleges; holding town halls. And making people feel that you're listening to them.

Democrats also need to come up with some catchy soundbites, because when it comes down to it, people don't read or remember or really care about policy positions anymore. They want something short and pithy that you can put after a hashtag.

And Democrats need to register young people to vote and make sure they go to the polls on election day. Because the only real way to effect change is by voting.

5 ways to fight Trump and make America great again

I, like many Americans, am sickened and angered by Donald Trump and his administration -- and the willingness of the GOP to kowtow to or silently accept Trump's heinous behavior and actions.

Trump has nominated people totally unqualified and/or unfit to take office. And since becoming president (words that are extremely difficult for me to type), Trump has taken actions that threaten women's/human rights, the environment, healthcare, education, and the economy. (Let me know if I left anything out.) And it is highly unlikely that the Republican-controlled House and Senate will do anything to stop the Trumpocalypse, until, perhaps, it is too late.

So what can we horrified American citizens do to try to limit the damage Trump is inflicting on us? Here are some suggestions, which even my fellow introverts can do.

• Call your local Representative and Senators, who you can find via https://www.usa.gov/elected-officials. Whether you want them to know where you stand on an issue or how you'd like them to vote on an appointment or bill, it's important to call them.

• Follow your Representatives and Senators on Facebook and/or sign up for their email updates, to keep abreast of the issues, find out where they stand, and how you can help. Chris Murphy, one of my senators, constantly reaches out to his constituents to see where we stand on various issues, with polls and surveys, and I'd like to think my participation helps.

• Support organizations that will fight for the causes you believe in, either by donating money or time. Organizations I recently donated to, in the fight to protect our civil liberties, the environment, women's health, and those seeking asylum or refuge in this country, include the ACLU, the Environmental Defense Fund, Planned Parenthood, and the International Rescue Committee. But there are many more, which you can find via Charity Navigator (and other sites). 

• Support good journalism/investigative reporting. How? By purchasing a subscription to those newspapers and news organizations that are working hard to uncover the truth about Trump and his administration and those policies and actions that are detrimental to America and Americans.
  
  I personally have become a big fan of The Washington Post this election cycle (and started subscribing last year), and I'm a longtime supporter of NPR. But there are many fine organizations dedicated to providing good, fair, honest, hard-hitting journalism that could use your support, and you can find a list of them on the PEN Center.
  
  
• Last, but far from least, make sure you are registered to vote and vote in the mid-term elections, which will be on November 6, 2018. The only way to stop Trump -- and Pence, who may very well become President before November 6, 2018 -- is for the Democrats to win back the Senate and the House. Also, consider donating money and/or time to helping the good guys get re-elected or supporting candidates who oppose Trump and will fight for education, the environment, and women's and human rights.
  
  (Sadly, even moderate Republicans, if there are truly any, have proven that they will not defy Trump, no matter how much they may privately disagree with him. So the only way to put a check on his devastating policies is for Democrats to take back the House and Senate.)

Have any other ideas? Let us know via the Comments.

Democrats don't get it

This post is going to piss off a lot (all?) of my Democrat friends. So be it. But we Democrats need to do a reality check.

Item #1: The electors are not going to not elect Donald Trump. It doesn't matter if that petition got 10 million signatures. Save your op-eds, your pleas, and your sanity. It ain't going to happen. Thirty-seven Republican electors are not going to not elect Trump.

Sure, maybe a couple of them will vote for someone else, another Republican. But as has been proven again and again -- and again -- Republicans always fall in line. And the Republican electors will cast their votes for Trump. And on the slim chance that 37 of them decide to do otherwise, the decision will get thrown to Congress. And guess what? They're not going to make Hillary Clinton -- or Bernie Sanders -- the next President of the United States. But if it makes you feel a wee bit better to sign some petition begging a bunch of Republicans to not vote for the Republican candidate, go ahead.

Item #2: Republicans will fall in line and confirm all of Trump's cabinet -- and Supreme Court -- appointments (or almost all of them). Forget the kvetching and big talk from Marco Rubio and Lindsey Graham et al. It's all just bluster. When it comes down to a vote, the Republicans will all fall in line and confirm Trump's cabinet and Supreme Court appointments, no matter how awful they are. Sure, one or two Congressfolk may dissent, but more for show, knowing someone else will cancel out their nay.

Item #3: Democrats in Congress will roll over, or compromise, like they always do. Just the other week there was big talk that the Democrats would let the Republicans flounder after repealing or gutting Obamacare -- that is, they wouldn't sign on to any legislation that offered less than what the Affordable Care Act offered. Yet now -- no surprise -- I am reading and hearing that (some? most?) Democrats will "work with" their Republican brethren, so that only, say, 19.95 million people lose their health insurance, or have to pay a fortune for insurance, instead of 20 million.

Look, I get it. A lot of these Democrats are up for reelection in 2018 and they feel that something is better than nothing. But if Democrats want to take back the Senate and House, they need to stiffen their spines and stand tall, instead of bending over and letting the Republicans give it to them.

Item #4: Bernie Sanders is not going to save us. I grant you that if the contest had been between Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump, we may very well have been talking about President-elect Bernie Sanders right now. But Hillary Clinton was who Democrats voted for, despite all of the negative press about Hillary, by MILLIONS of votes. And I very much doubt Putin and the Russians had anything to do with that outcome.

Also, it is important to note that while a President Sanders would be much more palatable, at least to a large portion of the population, than President Trump, he wouldn't have gotten anything done. And all of his big campaign promises -- making college free, medicare for all, a $15 minimum wage, reforming Wall Street -- which sound great, but would require raising taxes and/or increasing the debt, substantially, would never be approved/get passed by Congress.

You think Congress was obstructionist under President Barack Obama, who looks practically Conservative compared to Bernie? You can bet your bippy Republicans would do their level best to make sure a President Sanders got nothing done -- or worse, would still pass all sorts of harmful legislation or repeal legislation and executive orders passed under Obama, because they probably have the votes to do so.

Item #5: Wishing won't make it so, and ignoring reality, or the news, won't make Trump go away. So where do Democrats go from here? We fight to take back the Senate and House, by supporting and campaigning for Democratic candidates. And we tell representatives in the House and in the Senate not to roll over, by writing and calling them. And we, or our elected officials, file lawsuits against Donald Trump, as these attorneys general plan or may do.

2016 Democratic Primary Race Vote Update (No throwing chairs!)

So when this blog last printed the vote totals for Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton, back on April 27th, Hillary was leading Bernie by just over 3 million votes. So where do the Democratic candidates for President now stand?

Here is my updated table showing 2016 Democratic Primary & Caucus Vote Totals:

[Click on the image to enlarge it.]

As of this writing (with 96% of the votes reported for Oregon, which was the latest total as of this writing), Hillary Clinton is still leading Bernie Sanders -- by 2,890,670 votes.

Put in delegate terms, Clinton leads Sanders by 274 pledged delegates (which does not include super delegates), with Clinton having 1,768 pledged delegates and Sanders amassing 1,494 pledged delegates.

A few interesting facts about the recent Democratic contests:

* Hillary "crushed" Bernie in Guam, winning 59.5% of the vote to Bernie's 40.5%. Which just goes to show you how you need to read beyond the headlines. While it is true that Hillary, percentage-wise, "crushed" Bernie, in terms of actual votes, it wasn't a big deal -- 777 (Clinton) to 528 (Sanders).

* Clinton and Sanders were each awarded 27 delegates in Kentucky, even though, technically, Hillary "won." That's because the Democrats use the proportional method (which is not to be confused with the rhythm method, though can be just as or more confusing) of awarding delegates to candidates.

* States with large white populations (especially white, male, working class and/or young, white, male populations) and low black and Hispanic populations tend to vote Sanders whereas states that "look like the Democratic party" (i.e., are more diverse) tend to vote Clinton, which would seem to predict wins for Clinton in California and New Jersey (two delegate-rich states) and possibly New Mexico.

NEXT UP, contest-wise: The U.S. Virgin Islands on 6/4; Puerto Rico on 6/5; California, New Jersey, Montana, New Mexico, North Dakota, and South Dakota on 6/7; and Washington, D.C., on 6/14. So expect my next update on 6/8.

The imminent government shutdown explained in under 500 words

I don't write a whole lot about politics because I prefer to amuse my readers not offend them. But when my almost 13-year-old daughter got upset this morning when she saw a news segment saying the government was about to shut down, and she asked me how the government could let that happen, something inside me snapped. And I let loose.

And now I'm going to share what I told her with all of you. Fortunately for you, you can close this page if you don't want to hear what I had to say. My daughter, on the other hand, had to listen to my diatribe (though she said it helped her understand what was going on -- and she's used to mom ranting and raving about politics).

In a nutshell: I explained to my adolescent daughter that under President Bill Clinton, a Democrat, the government ran a surplus -- that is, it took in more money (mainly in the form of taxes) than it spent. Then under President George W. Bush, a Republican, the government squandered that surplus, in part by launching two unnecessary and costly wars, and wound up with a deficit -- that is spending more money than it took in. And that the deficit has continued to spiral out of control, and that Congress (which has a Republican majority) and the President (Barack Obama, a Democrat) wanted to do something about it, but that they disagreed on how to fix the problem.

I then reminded her that there was a fundamental, philosophical difference between Democrats and Republicans. That Republicans believed in a small Federal government whose primary (and some believe only) job was to protect this country from outside threats -- i.e., tax dollars should be spent on defense. Moreover, Republicans were against raising taxes and taxation in general. (Though really who likes taxes? Some of us are just more realistic about it -- and like the idea of good public schools and clean air and clean water and a social safety net.)

And so if money had to be raised or saved, Republicans believed the solution was to slash spending -- on everything except defense and, OK, entitlements (Social Security and Medicare), which make up the majority of the U.S. Federal budget. Which means that you have to slash spending on things like education, and school lunches, and PBS and NPR (even though the savings for doing so would be a pittance and would solve NOTHING), and other programs that help and benefit the 99% of Americans who are not millionaires and/or in Congress.

Democrats on the other hand, while they are not against cutting spending, don't believe it is a sin or a crime to occasionally raise taxes -- and prefer to cut spending strategically, so as not to inflict unnecessary pain or suffering on Americans.

And so we have an impasse, with Democrats suggesting billions in spending cuts, some of them quite painful, and Republicans continuing to say "fuck you." (Though I didn't use the F word when explaining this to my daughter.)

And if the Republicans in Congress and the President can't reach some sort of agreement today, the Federal government will shut down -- though every member of Congress will still get a big fat paycheck (and spare me the lecture about it's only because the Constitution requires it -- I know), even though the people who actually do the work for them, as well as millions of other Federal employees and soldiers who really need the money, will not.

Does that help explain it, Sweetheart?

UPDATE #1: Many thanks to FOB CRR for sharing this article, titled "It's Not Really About Spending," which clearly puts the blame where it is due.

UPDATE #2: Just received this thoughtful email from my Congressman, which contains information about the government shutdown and which services will be affected -- and which will not.

UPDATE #3: Government shutdown avoided. Nothing to see here. Move along.