Wednesday, April 20, 2016

Hillary, Bernie + How New York Voted: Election 2016 Democratic Vote Update

So which Democratic candidate did New Yorkers vote for in the 2016 presidential primary? Was it Bernie, the Bro from Brooklyn, who left the City in 1960 to attend the University of Chicago, settled in Vermont in 1968, and went on to serve in the House of Representatives and the Senate representing Vermont (as an Independent, not a Democrat)?

Or was it the carpetbagger, Hillary, who grew up in Illinois, attended Wellesley in the 1960s, and then lived most of the 1970s and 1980s in Arkansas before moving to D.C. in 1993 and to Chappaqua, New York, in 1999 -- going on to represent her adopted state of New York as Senator in the 2000s (and serving as Secretary of State from 2009 to 2013)?

Even if you are not a news junkie (as I am), you probably already know that Hillary Clinton won the New York primary election -- and by a significant amount. What is a "significant" amount, you ask? With 98 percent of precincts having reported, Clinton had 1,037,344 votes while Bernie Sanders had 752,739. So Clinton beat Sanders by more than 250,000 votes -- or, put another way, by 16 percent.

Bernie Sanders had a strong showing in upstate New York, especially in rural areas touching or close to his home state of Vermont. (For those of you geographically challenged, Vermont is right next to the Northeast corner of New York State.) However, Hillary Clinton dominated the New York City metro area, i.e., New York City, Long Island, and Westchester -- and won in Buffalo, Rochester, and Syracuse, too.

So where do the candidates now stand, in terms of total number of votes (as opposed to delegates)? Here's my latest table, which now includes Wyoming, where approximately 7,000 Democrats caucused earlier this month, and New York, a closed primary state, where nearly 1.8 million Democrats voted.

[Click on the table to enlarge it.]

So, as of today, Wednesday, April 20, more than 10.6 million people have voted for Hillary Clinton and more than 8 million have voted for Bernie Sanders. And Hillary leads Bernie by close to 2.6 million votes.

However, as most people know, it's not total votes that count or win elections, it's delegates. And Clinton currently has 1,446 pledged delegates (based on contests she has won), whereas Sanders has 1,200 pledged delegates (based on contests he has won). And when it comes to super, or unpledged, delegates, Clinton has 502 versus Sanders's 38. The magic number to win the Democratic nomination: 2,383.

While it is not impossible for Bernie Sanders to win the Democratic nomination for president, it's not going to be easy. And before any of you start squawking about the nominating process, I KNOW. It seems totally unfair, especially to Bernie supporters. But it is what it is -- and the system was set up long before Hillary ever ran for President. And even if you hate the delegate system, Clinton is still leading Sanders by nearly 2.6 million votes.


VB said...

I do like a graph, but I love a pie chart. Got any of those???

J. said...

Sorry, VB, all I got is that table. Though a bar graph is not a bad idea. If you'd like to pay me, I'll create one. (Don't think a pie chart is the way to go for this data set.)